[wolfier] lucky winner

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[wolfier] lucky winner

Postby wolfier » Sun Jun 03, 2018 3:11 pm

As Simon was watching the TV intensely, he screamed, "WHY ME?!??".

Deduce the events that led to this.
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby Earnest » Sun Jun 03, 2018 4:20 pm

Hi wolfier!

Was him reacting to something he saw in TV? Was the TV turned on? Was the TV turned off so that he was able to see every reflection on the screen? "Why me?!" = why it's my turn to die? Why are you going to kill me? Why are you going to do something negative to me? Why it's my turn on something? Me = Simon himself?
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby GalFisk » Sun Jun 03, 2018 7:05 pm

Is he watching a competition? A lottery drawing? A live broadcast? Himself? Is he watching intensely because he is expecting something to happen? Does he scream in: anger? Fear? Disbelief? Happiness? Sorrow? Annoyance? Frustration? Confusion? In order to be heard?
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby Zanreo » Sun Jun 03, 2018 7:08 pm

He = Simon? Did he see something that reminded him of his own life? Something that had happened to him? Something relevant to him? Was he watching a TV show? Movie? Commercial? Playing a video game? Was the TV even on at all? Was he hoping for something to happen? And it didn't happen? Was he quoting something/someone?
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby wolfier » Mon Jun 04, 2018 6:41 am

Hi wolfier!
Hi Earnest!

Was him reacting to something he saw in TV? Yes Was the TV turned on? Yes Was the TV turned off so that he was able to see every reflection on the screen? No "Why me?!" = why it's my turn to die? No Why are you going to kill me? No Why are you going to do something negative to me? No Why it's my turn on something? No Me = Simon himself? Yes

Galfisk

Is he watching a competition? No A lottery drawing? No A live broadcast? No but... Himself? No Is he watching intensely because he is expecting something to happen? Yes Does he scream in: anger? Fear? Disbelief? Happiness? Sorrow? Annoyance? Frustration? Confusion? Yes to the Negative moods In order to be heard? No

Zanreo

He = Simon? Yes Did he see something that reminded him of his own life? No Something that had happened to him? No Something relevant to him? Yes Was he watching a TV show? Movie? Commercial? Playing a video game? No to all Was the TV even on at all? It was on Was he hoping for something to happen? Yes And it didn't happen? Yes Was he quoting something/someone? No
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby Earnest » Mon Jun 04, 2018 8:42 am

Lottery relevant? Had Simon something to do in first person with the TV program he was watching? (E.g. he was the director/producer of the movie he was watching; he was the collegue in competition with the news teller that was on air...) can we assume he was watching the TV from his house and that he was alone? Did he lose a bet?

Was him watching news? Is his job relevant? Politics involved?
Something to happen = something that if happened would have made him gain money? Change his life? In terms of hs carreer? His way of spend money? Was a strike indicted precisely for the trait he is supposed to cross and had no car available? Relevant that his name is Simon (which btw reminds me "the voice" and America's got talent) ? Would it work had Simon listened the same thing to the radio? Or did he need to see sonething? Btw was him watching a match? A sport match? News? Dj
Id he notice something which was not part of the main concept of the program he was watching? (E.g. the news were saying about traffic near where he lives and he saw in the backgroung someone stealing his car...)

Would the same thing he watxhed on TV laid the major part of people indifferent? Was it specifically directed to Simon? To a small group of people? The fact that a street was closed/ an area was declared unavailable so that nobody would hace seen his shop? Something similar?
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby wolfier » Mon Jun 04, 2018 2:46 pm

Lots of questions!

Lottery relevant? No Had Simon something to do in first person with the TV program he was watching? (E.g. he was the director/producer of the movie he was watching; he was the collegue in competition with the news teller that was on air...) No can we assume he was watching the TV from his house and that he was alone? You can assume these Did he lose a bet? Technically yes

Was him watching news? Technically yes Is his job relevant? No Politics involved? No
Something to happen = something that if happened would have made him gain money? Yes Change his life? by as much as the amount of gained money allows, I guess In terms of hs carreer? No His way of spend money? Likely but Irrel. Was a strike indicted precisely for the trait he is supposed to cross and had no car available? No, but I'm interested in knowing why you came up with this :) Relevant that his name is Simon (which btw reminds me "the voice" and America's got talent) ? haha, It would still work if the name is anything else Would it work had Simon listened the same thing to the radio? Great question, yes Or did he need to see sonething? Not seeing in particular, see above Btw was him watching a match? A sport match? News? No to all except I think we have already mentioned news above Dj
Id he notice something which was not part of the main concept of the program he was watching? (E.g. the news were saying about traffic near where he lives and he saw in the backgroung someone stealing his car...) Great idea for a new puzzle, but no

Would the same thing he watxhed on TV laid the major part of people indifferent? it targets a subset of watchers Was it specifically directed to Simon? No To a small group of people? To a group yes, not sure if small, assume 1/4 of everyone The fact that a street was closed/ an area was declared unavailable so that nobody would hace seen his shop? Something similar? No to these

Discovering what's on TV and the immediate reason he screamed is only part of the puzzle.
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby GalFisk » Mon Jun 04, 2018 3:05 pm

Is a crime relevant? A law? Is something being changed so that he can no longer exploit it? Has he already earned money by this method before? Did he spend money on something, expecting more money in return?
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby wolfier » Mon Jun 04, 2018 3:48 pm

GalFisk

Is a crime relevant? YES! A law? To the extent that a crime is relevant Is something being changed so that he can no longer exploit it? No, lurking FA Has he already earned money by this method before? In general, yes, but easy to go on the wrong track with this one. Did he spend money on something, expecting more money in return? Yes and OTRT
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby GalFisk » Mon Jun 04, 2018 4:37 pm

Did he invest in something? Buy shares? Pyramid schemes relevant? Did he commit a crime? Did he want to commit a crime? Did he want someone else to commit a crime? Did the TV report on a crime? Was he the victim of a crime? Scams relevant?
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby Earnest » Mon Jun 04, 2018 6:07 pm

Lots of questions -->..sorry...ok I exploit this occasion to sorry any puzzle teller and to thank you for your patience with me...but that's simply how thoughts come into my confusonary mind xD

No, but I'm interested in knowing why you came up with this-->...well quite a long story...anyway I was at uni and had an exam for which I was not prepared and hoped for a strike. My mum just phoned me while I was on the train that the river near my university overflood and I was quite happy and worried at the same time

Did he commit a crime? Or was him the victim?
Was a crook arrested?
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby wolfier » Mon Jun 04, 2018 7:21 pm

GalFisk

Did he invest in something? YES Buy shares? But no Pyramid schemes relevant? No Did he commit a crime? No Did he want to commit a crime? Irrel Did he want someone else to commit a crime? Irrel Did the TV report on a crime? No Was he the victim of a crime? YES, no more FA Scams relevant? YES

Earnest

Lots of questions -->..sorry...ok I exploit this occasion to sorry any puzzle teller and to thank you for your patience with me...but that's simply how thoughts come into my confusonary mind xD That's fine :)

No, but I'm interested in knowing why you came up with this-->...well quite a long story...anyway I was at uni and had an exam for which I was not prepared and hoped for a strike. My mum just phoned me while I was on the train that the river near my university overflood and I was quite happy and worried at the same time Lucky!

Did he commit a crime? No Or was him the victim? YES
Was a crook arrested? No
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby Earnest » Mon Jun 04, 2018 8:27 pm

Was sonething demolished? Did he buy a car and then discovered that something irregular was going on in its engines (e.g.Audi/Volkswagen scandal...)? Was his investment directly affected? Did he buy a good? Seceral goods? Is it an investment that could be done in several brands? Is the criminal's aim to attract investment by people and escape with money ? Or does the crime involves something that indirectly made him lose money? (E.g. unauthorized building in a place not secure)

Did the criminal attract his/her victims through an advertising? An sms? An e-mail? News? Relevant? Is it a necessary investment? Involving technology? Phones? Internet? Cable involved?
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby wolfier » Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:05 am

Was sonething demolished? No Did he buy a car and then discovered that something irregular was going on in its engines (e.g.Audi/Volkswagen scandal...)? No Was his investment directly affected? Yes Did he buy a good? Seceral goods? No to both Is it an investment that could be done in several brands? Brands? Is the criminal's aim to attract investment by people and escape with money ? YES! Or does the crime involves something that indirectly made him lose money? (E.g. unauthorized building in a place not secure) So no

Did the criminal attract his/her victims through an advertising? Yes-ish An sms? No An e-mail? Yes News? No Relevant? Yes in a sense that the scheme cannot work for example over the phone Is it a necessary investment? No Involving technology? Phones? Internet? Cable involved? a combination of all mentioned and some more, there is a name to it
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby GalFisk » Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:11 am

Cryptocurrency relevant? A 419 scam? Gambling? Betting?
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby wolfier » Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:17 am

Cryptocurrency relevant? Irrel, but assume no A 419 scam? Not a typical one involving a prince, see below Gambling? Yes-ish Betting? Yes-ish


Recap:

Simon sits in front of a TV or radio at home, and after receiving some information from it, yells "WHY ME?!??!", which isn't necessarily meant for anyone to hear or not.

Simon is a victim of an investment scam where the scammer attracts investment money through email and run with the money. The said scheme can only work in a certain way, for example, it would not work over the phone.

New information to be revealed at this point:
Simon is a normally considered a savvy and cautious person who is not known for falling to scams easily. Part of the solution is to find out how the scam works.
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby Earnest » Tue Jun 05, 2018 10:43 am

So an e-mail is send...the criminal sending the e-mail fakes to be a bank agent? A bank? A secure financial institution? Or he/she actually belongs to an accredited financial institution/firm?...I mean...if Leman Brother send me an e-mail in 2007 I would have accepted...

Is it something like "a firm was going bankruptcy" but is actually not gone yet and Simon invested in it? Did Simon trust the criminal? If so because he knew him/her/the Institution he/she represents? Did someone stole his mail account? His personal data? Was the criminal scheme: ask for money to be paid via internet and escape? Or did they(simon and the criminal) get in touch for a longer period of time? If so always via e-mail?
Had Simon a relevant hobby? Poker? Betting?

Cryptocurrencies involved? Bitcoins?

What he was watching on TV: financial markets news?

Was the criminal conscious that sonething was going to happen? Did the criminal stole personal data of someone Simon trusted? Did the criminal impersonate someone related to Simon? A professionist? An expert?
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby wolfier » Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:47 am

So an e-mail is send...the criminal sending the e-mail fakes to be a bank agent? A bank? A secure financial institution? Or he/she actually belongs to an accredited financial institution/firm?...I mean...if Leman Brother send me an e-mail in 2007 I would have accepted... No to all of the above but they're all very relevant

Is it something like "a firm was going bankruptcy" but is actually not gone yet and Simon invested in it? No Did Simon trust the criminal? Yes, explore If so because he knew him/her/the Institution he/she represents? But no Did someone stole his mail account? No His personal data? No Was the criminal scheme: ask for money to be paid via internet and escape? The manner in which the scammer received the money is irrel Or did they (simon and the criminal) get in touch for a longer period of time? Yes If so always via e-mail? Yes, we're getting closer
Had Simon a relevant hobby? Poker? Betting? All irrel

Cryptocurrencies involved? Bitcoins? Irrel, but in my story no

What he was watching on TV: financial markets news? YES, and it resolves the 'what was on TV?' part.

Was the criminal conscious that sonething was going to happen? could you elaborate? Did the criminal stole personal data of someone Simon trusted? No Did the criminal impersonate someone related to Simon? No A professionist? No An expert? This
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby GalFisk » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:22 am

There's a scam that works like this: the scammer individually tells a large number of people that team A will win a match, and an equal number of people that team B will win. The half that was told the correct result, is divided in two and set up for another match. Continuing like this, one or a few of the great number of initial targets will get the impression that the scammer can predict the outcomes without fail.
Is this type of scam relevant?
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby wolfier » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:30 am

GalFisk wrote:There's a scam that works like this: the scammer individually tells a large number of people that team A will win a match, and an equal number of people that team B will win. The half that was told the correct result, is divided in two and set up for another match. Continuing like this, one or a few of the great number of initial targets will get the impression that the scammer can predict the outcomes without fail.
Is this type of scam relevant?


Very. Nice jump. Can anyone put together a complete story?
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby wolfier » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:11 pm

At this point, it seems there are much more interesting puzzles, so in light of GalFisk's input:

*** SPOILER ***
Simon was approached by a scammer posing as a fund manager through email who seems to be able to predict whether DOW goes up or down daily for a week straight. He gave a large sum to the scammer who gave him a phoney investment portfolio and promised an attractive return.

The way the scammer appeared to be able to predict the DOW is pretty much exactly the same as what GalFisk has described.

Upon seeing the portfolio losing money for days on TV, he realised he has lost his investments, thus the exclamation.

Thanks for playing, especially to GalFisk who made the crucial lateral jump.
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby GalFisk » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:24 am

Nice puzzle. Do you know the name of this scam? I tried to find it, but ran out of time and had to describe it instead.

I think I first learned about it on some mentalist TV show.
They also did a thing where the mentalist appeared to play 7 games of chess simultaneously against chess champions, and winning 4 of the matches. What he did was to secretly make three of them play against the three others, by memorizing and repeating their moves to the other. Being a skilled chess player, he took on the weakest champion himself and won.
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Re: [wolfier] lucky winner

Postby wolfier » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:50 pm

have no idea whether it has a name- but then if it is popular enough to warrant it's own name and I knew it, probably wouldn't build a puzzle on top of it :)

the second one you mentioned is a nice one. never heard about it myself.

(edit: it sounds like this article describes it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias)
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